Pakistan pulled off a shocker in the 3rd ODI, managing to lose from a highly commanding position of 0 for 95, chasing just 199, with 28 overs left. Although conditions did seem highly favorable to bowling, especially spin bowling, this still has to be one of the biggest collapses in the history of ODI cricket. Judging from a couple of the forums I have read, Pakistani fans are extremely frustrated with this team, and justifiably so. And let’s not even mention the gamblers who were probably spending their winnings already before the wickets began to tumble.

Last Match:

For the 3rd ODI Pakistan took out Shoaib Akthar, who was suffering from a viral infection/being Shoaib Akthar, and Iftikhar Anjum, bringing in Yasir Arafat and Sohail Tanvir. I saw these as positive changes to bring in more batting to a side that is somewhat lacking in that department, but unfortunately neither looked particularly convincing with the bat when called upon in this game. The bowling attack did well to restrict the Aussies to just 198, with Michael Clarke providing a solid 66, just what they needed in this type of situation. 29 overs of spin were employed, and while Shoaib Malik and Shahid Afridi were very effective, Saeed Ajmal was somewhat disappointing given these conditions. Perhaps he was out of form due to the controversy over his action, or perhaps the Australians have studied some film and are better able to respond to the doosra.

In any case Pakistan then got off to a very solid start in their chase, with Salman Butt making 48 and the young Ahmed Shezhad 40, before spin was introduced. Nathan Hauritz started with some tight overs, giving up only 7 off his first four, before striking twice in the 22nd over to remove Butt and Younis Khan. Michael Clarke and his left-arm spin, which has actually been extremely effective in one-day cricket, then took both Misbah and Shezhad in his first two deliveries, and eventually finished with figures of 3 for 15 from 6 overs. It must be noted that Misbah and Shahid Afridi both played shots that were quite unnecessary given the situation at hand. Pakistan were always struggling after this and although Shoaib Malik and Sohail Tanvir provided some late resistance, in the end Pakistan came up one partnership short.

4th ODI Projection:

Although Abu Dhabi has been a relatively tame venue in the past, given that both teams were getting turn even from part-time spinners, I have adjusted the conditions to favor spin for the rest of this series. Perhaps the extreme hot and dry weather has broken the pitch down compared to previous games, although I would venture to guess that it is always pretty hot in Abu Dhabi.

In any case the changes made in the 3rd ODI tend to favor Australia just slightly. Most of the difference lies in the mix of part-time spinners taking an increased role for both teams, which slightly favors Australia as Clarke and Symonds are rated as better bowlers than Shoaib Malik.

Key Players:

Pakistan - If spin is going to be important again in this one, Shoaib Malik will have to play a key role. Many have criticized Malik for only bowling himself against the weak teams while he was captain and as it turns out, this is completely true. Malik has one of the biggest gaps between his projected average in my model which takes into account opponent strength, which is over 45, and his “statsheet” average, which is around 35, that I have seen. In other words, most of his wickets have come against the minnow sides, possibly in spinning conditions, while he has not performed well against teams like Australia. Of course, there’s nothing really wrong with this, and in fact, one could say he was a good captain, since there’s no point in him bowling if he is only going to get crushed by the better sides. In any case, despite his poor career figures he bowled well in the last match and nearly carried Pakistan to victory with his all-round performance.

Australia - Shane Watson is back in this Australian setup, albeit as a batsman only, and got off to a poor start in the form of a second ball duck in the last game. Although Watson is a very hard hitter of the cricket ball and an outstanding all-rounder when fit, I’m not quite sure if he’s up to the standard to be part of this team without adding balance with his bowling. Personally I think he should go the Jacob Oram route and specialize as a one-day allrounder, given that he can’t seem to stay healthy no matter what he does.

Rosters:

Going with the rosters from the last game is always going to be more accurate than trying to read the minds of the selectors, so that is what I have done here, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shoaib Akhtar come in for Yasir Arafat, who wasn’t particularly impressive. Personally, if the pitch looks like it’s going to turn again and they’re going to bowl 30 overs of spin anyway, I would rather see Pakistan go with an extra batsman + Tanvir at 9 in this game. This does mean that they will have to turn to spin early on during the power plays, but as the IPL so far has shown, in the right conditions, this is not such a bad thing.

David Hussey has made mountains of runs in first-class cricket, so it’s hard to see why he only averages 25 so far in his ODI career. In fairness he has been asked to come in during the slog overs a number of times, which is never going to help one’s average, but still, he’s getting near the point where simple bad luck is becoming somewhat unlikely, and the selectors’ patience may be wearing thin as well. I think Marcus North would be a great inclusion into this side, especially since his off-breaks are of a fairly decent standard.

Personal Spin:

The line has movted a little closer in this game compared to the 3rd ODI with Pakistan at only 2.26 and Australia at 1.65 on betfair, although I do see Pakistan at 2.40 on bodog, which is a little better. It’s hard to see much value at those prices, because although my model and the closeness of this series suggest that there’s value on Pakistan here, it’s very hard to be sure that they’re going to come out in the right frame of mind in this one, and there’s not a gaping difference in the numbers. But if I was making a play, I would definitely bet Pakistan here. Although the series may well end up 4-1, with Australia’s best players on the couch, I don’t think the difference in quality between these two sides is as large as what many would believe, plus Pakistan are kind of at home. If Pakistan were to get back a few of the players lost to the ICL, which seems very likely given the new “amnesty” offer (I hate this term), they should be a very competitive side in the future.

Pakistan Batting:

Batsman Projected Avg Projected SR Ahmed Shezad 29.69 77.57 Salman Butt 36.77 73.04 Younis Khan 31.57 77.10 Shoaib Malik 31.35 74.47 Misbah-ul-Haq 37.49 80.86 Shahid Afridi 18.69 114.05 Kamran Akmal 22.19 78.35 Yasir Arafat 17.35 41.41 Sohail Tanvir 13.23 98.43 Umar Gul 8.79 64.09 Saeed Ajmal 6.94 62.25

Pakistan Bowling:

Bowler Proj Avg Proj Econ Proj SR Expected Overs Sohail Tanvir 26.30 4.93 32.04 6 Umar Gul 22.28 4.86 27.49 8 Iftikar Anjum 25.84 4.85 31.96 7 Shahid Afridi 28.44 4.01 42.61 10 Saeed Ajmal 22.83 3.71 36.88 9 Shoaib Malik 39.14 4.23 55.49 10

Australia Batting:

Batsman Proj Avg Proj SR Brad Haddin 31.57 79.92 James Hopes 22.47 83.44 Shane Watson 30.31 81.07 Michael Clarke 33.90 68.40 Andrew Symonds 38.52 86.21 Callum Ferguson 28.73 80.82 David Hussey 30.49 77.20 Nathan Hauritz 15.65 73.00 Nathan Bracken 7.64 57.68 Ben Hilfenhaus 7.51 52.24 Stuart Clark 7.44 62.04

Australia Bowling:

Bowler Proj Avg Proj Econ Proj SR Expected Overs Nathan Bracken 26.27 4.72 33.38 10 Ben Hilfenhaus 39.20 5.07 46.37 7 Stuart Clark 29.39 4.70 37.48 5 Nathan Hauritz 28.28 4.39 38.67 10 James Hopes 28.49 4.55 37.58 2 Andrew Symonds 32.29 4.61 41.99 10 Michael Clarke 27.03 4.32 37.54 6   read more »